Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Ratings Based Racing: A Limit On Their Usefulness

By David Gately

In the racing vernacular, the word 'rating' is thrown around a fair bit... It can mean a number of things: A computer generated number (rating) given to a horse based on racetrack performances; a ranking of horses relative to one-another with a mix between statistics and human involvement/opinion; or even simply an opinion given on a race whereby the punter 'ranks' each horse from favourite to least favourite. These "ratings" are quite different from the 'ratings-based racing' which has arrived recently to racing.

So what are ratings-based races? Basically each horse is given a "rating" which is updated after every start they have. A horse cannot run in a race which is rated under their level. For example, if their rating is 69 then they cannot run in a 68RB (Ratings-Based) race, where as they can race in a 70RB (or higher obviously).

It seems obvious from feedback within the racing industry that RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) has been very well accepted. In fact, a survey of trainers/owners etc showed 86% were happy with the system, this overwhelming support (and of course the fact field sizes and therefore turnover is increased) will ensure this system remains in Victoria for some time.

In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: "Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can't have an 'off day', wet/dry tracks doesn't bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough".

Racehorses can fluctuate their form just like human athletes can. Unfortunately though, racehorses cannot talk. So we, as punters, are required to recognise signals and signs from horses at either their previous run, or pre-race, that indicate what stage physically and mentally they are at, in order to find a winner. For example, a horse charges home in a slowly run race early in it's preparation, this sends off obvious warning signs it is ready to win and may even be looking for extra distance. Another example might be if a horse leads, but is 'taken on' by other horses and given little peace. He may well fail in that particular race but then find a softer run up or near the lead at his next start and come out and win, at some value!

It is all about knowing the horses Knowing which horse is comfortable at which distance, at which track, is s/he is better leading or ridden from behind, is s/he better suited on wet or dry ground, is s/he more likely to race well if outside other horses and not cluttered up between them? If you can look at a race and know each horse's traits or 'clicks'... You are well on your way to finding a winner.

So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning). - 15784

About the Author: